🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 38%, yet in-form IF Elfsborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Degerfors IF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

IF Elfsborg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. IF Elfsborg are 0.70 PPG clear of Degerfors IF in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IF Elfsborg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 6 meetings, IF Elfsborg have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Degerfors IF's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 60% and IF Elfsborg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Degerfors IF 63% | IF Elfsborg 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.24 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.851 / defence 0.985 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.004 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.162. Data: 3 Degerfors IF games / 33 IF Elfsborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | IF Elfsborg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Elfsborg (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 60% | IF Elfsborg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights