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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF finished level at 1-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.68 xG and Hammarby FF 1.77 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.48 / defence 1.04 against Hammarby FF attack 1.22 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 12% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 62%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 62%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 52%, Hammarby FF 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Degerfors IF's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights