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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Degerfors IF face Hammarby FF.

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Match Analysis

Degerfors IF host Hammarby FF at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 November 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Degerfors IF — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 0W 3D 7L at Stora Valla — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stora Valla this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hammarby FF have the better historical record — 6 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Degerfors IF.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Hammarby FF winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hammarby FF have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 59% versus Hammarby FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | Hammarby FF 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.68 xG and Hammarby FF 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.479 / defence 1.043 | Hammarby FF attack 1.224 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.385. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.479 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hammarby FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Degerfors IF games / 58 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 12% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 62%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 8.33 | Draw 3.85 | Hammarby FF 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 30% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.

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