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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Degerfors IF 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AIK Stockholm beat Degerfors IF 0-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.73 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.25 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.51 / defence 1.18 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 22% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 48%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 54%, AIK Stockholm 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Degerfors IF's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.40 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights