🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 21 as Degerfors IF welcome AIK Stockholm to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 15:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Degerfors IF — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 1.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 3 for AIK Stockholm and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2025, ended 0–3 with AIK Stockholm winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 58% versus AIK Stockholm 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 54% | AIK Stockholm 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.73 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.513 / defence 1.176 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.789 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.344. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.513 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Degerfors IF games / 50 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 22% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 48%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | AIK Stockholm 2.08. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 40% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights