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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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BK Hacken and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BK Hacken and Sirius finished level at 1-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.31 xG and Sirius 2.10 xG, a combined 4.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sirius landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.01 / defence 1.31 against Sirius attack 1.17 / defence 1.54, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 44% | Draw 20% | Sirius 36%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 64%, Sirius 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BK Hacken's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Sirius's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.32 PPG, Sirius 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights