BK Hacken 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 27 as BK Hacken welcome Sirius to Bravida Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 October 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sirius's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of BK Hacken's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of BK Hacken: 6 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Sirius, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Sirius winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both BK Hacken and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Sirius trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 55% and Sirius 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 64% | Sirius 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.31 xG and Sirius 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.009 / defence 1.314 | Sirius attack 1.174 / defence 1.536. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.360. Sirius bring a strong defensive rating of 1.536 — this is suppressing BK Hacken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 BK Hacken games / 56 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 44% | Draw 20% | Sirius 36%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.27 | Draw 5.00 | Sirius 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
BK Hacken dominate the H2H record, yet Sirius are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sirius (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.40 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 79% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 70% | Sirius 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 44% | Draw 20% | Sirius 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 79% | xG BK Hacken 2.31 / Sirius 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.009 / def 1.314 | Sirius attack 1.174 / def 1.536 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Sirius xG
79%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Sirius kick off?
BK Hacken vs Sirius kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
BK Hacken 1 - 1 Sirius.
Where is BK Hacken vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Sirius part of?
BK Hacken vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 44% chance of winning, Sirius a 36% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both BK Hacken and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
Record (7 meetings): BK Hacken 6W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Sirius (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.01x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 2.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (6.8%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
44%
2.27
20%
5.11
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
1 – 2
6.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
4.40
2.10
Sirius xG
2.27
44%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.27
21%
BTTS No
4.76
Clean Sheet
12%
8.15
10%
10.02
Win to Nil
5%
18.51
4%
27.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for BK Hacken and 2.10 for Sirius, a combined total of 4.40.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 21W 11D 24L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 20W 10D 26L from 56 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.32 PPG, Sirius on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (10W 5D 13L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 9W 5D 14L from 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.61 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 66%.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 21W 11D 24L in their last 56 games (1.32 PPG), while Sirius have gone 20W 10D 26L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Sirius away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.25 PPG; Sirius away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when BK Hacken won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
BK Hacken
2
Draws
1
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 7, Sirius have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Sirius 0-3 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Sirius?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — BK Hacken at 68%, Sirius at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for BK Hacken and 64% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of BK Hacken's games and 75% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of BK Hacken's matches and 64% of Sirius's.
Do BK Hacken and Sirius tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sirius in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken and Sirius finished level at 1-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.31 xG and Sirius 2.10 xG, a combined 4.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sirius landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.01 / defence 1.31 against Sirius attack 1.17 / defence 1.54, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 44% | Draw 20% | Sirius 36%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 64%, Sirius 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.32 PPG, Sirius 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.