AIK Stockholm 1-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 45%, yet in-form AIK Stockholm provide a compelling counter-argument — this AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Strawberry Arena to take on AIK Stockholm. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 16 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm at Strawberry Arena this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strawberry Arena this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AIK Stockholm are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: AIK Stockholm have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Mjallby AIF have managed just 2 wins.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2026, ended 2–1 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The historical record gives AIK Stockholm a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
AIK Stockholm trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 54% versus Mjallby AIF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 56% | Mjallby AIF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.58 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.903 / defence 1.453 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.053 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.266. Data: 50 AIK Stockholm games / 50 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 31% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 45%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Mjallby AIF 2.22. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AIK Stockholm (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.52 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 40% | Mjallby AIF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 31% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.58 / Mjallby AIF 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.903 / def 1.453 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.053 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Mjallby AIF xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 31% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
Record (9 meetings): AIK Stockholm 5W | Draws 2 | Mjallby AIF 2W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.90x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
31%
3.27
24%
4.11
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
3.52
1.94
Mjallby AIF xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
14%
6.94
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
4%
22.68
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.94 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 50 games, going 22W 14D 14L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.92 PPG from 50 outings (28W 12D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.60 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 11W 6D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 2.00 points per game from 24 outings (14W 6D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.66 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 22W 14D 14L in their last 50 games (1.60 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 28W 12D 10L in their last 50 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.62 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 2.00 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 16 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2026, when AIK Stockholm 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 46%, Mjallby AIF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (AIK Stockholm) and 58% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 33%; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 58% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of AIK Stockholm's matches and 58% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 18, as AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.58 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.94 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.90 / defence 1.45 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 31% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 45%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 56%, Mjallby AIF 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.60 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.