AIK Stockholm 2-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Strawberry Arena to take on AIK Stockholm. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AIK Stockholm at Strawberry Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AIK Stockholm are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for AIK Stockholm, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.1 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.1 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
AIK Stockholm trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 50% versus Mjallby AIF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 48% | Mjallby AIF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.38 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.193 / defence 0.907 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.301 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.248. Mjallby AIF have an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 AIK Stockholm games / 37 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 35% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 40%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Mjallby AIF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AIK Stockholm (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 50% | Mjallby AIF 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 35% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.38 / Mjallby AIF 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.193 / def 0.907 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.301 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Mjallby AIF xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm 2 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 35% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
Record (7 meetings): AIK Stockholm 3W | Draws 3 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 1.19x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
35%
2.84
25%
3.96
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.85
1.47
Mjallby AIF xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
8%
12.38
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.47 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 60 games, going 26W 12D 22L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.52 PPG from 60 outings (26W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.50 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 16W 7D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.47 points per game from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.27 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Mjallby AIF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.83 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.47 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 47%, Mjallby AIF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AIK Stockholm) and 43% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 40% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 43% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Mjallby AIF 2-1 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.38 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.47 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.19 / defence 0.91 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.30 / defence 0.84, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 35% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 40%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 48%, Mjallby AIF 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.