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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF encounter.

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Match Analysis

AIK Stockholm host Degerfors IF at Strawberry Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 July 2025 at 15:30 UTC.

Form Guide

AIK Stockholm — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AIK Stockholm's home record at Strawberry Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strawberry Arena. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at Strawberry Arena than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Degerfors IF's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, AIK Stockholm have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for AIK Stockholm, 2 for Degerfors IF and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with AIK Stockholm winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 48% versus Degerfors IF 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 48% | Degerfors IF 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.51 xG and Degerfors IF 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.221 / defence 0.709 | Degerfors IF attack 1.079 / defence 1.494. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.252. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.494 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 0.709 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 AIK Stockholm games / 14 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 71% | Draw 17% | Degerfors IF 12%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Degerfors IF 8.33. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 40% | Degerfors IF 60%.

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