AIK Stockholm 3-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Degerfors IF at Strawberry Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 July 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Strawberry Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strawberry Arena. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at Strawberry Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, AIK Stockholm have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for AIK Stockholm, 2 for Degerfors IF and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 48% versus Degerfors IF 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 48% | Degerfors IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.51 xG and Degerfors IF 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.221 / defence 0.709 | Degerfors IF attack 1.079 / defence 1.494. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.252. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.494 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 0.709 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 AIK Stockholm games / 14 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 71% | Draw 17% | Degerfors IF 12%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Degerfors IF 8.33. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 40% | Degerfors IF 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Jul 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 71% | Draw 17% | Degerfors IF 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 57% | xG AIK Stockholm 2.51 / Degerfors IF 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.221 / def 0.709 | Degerfors IF attack 1.079 / def 1.494 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Degerfors IF xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 13 July 2025 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
AIK Stockholm 3 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 71% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
Record (6 meetings): AIK Stockholm 2W | Draws 2 | Degerfors IF 2W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 1.22x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 2.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.94
12%
8.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
3.47
0.96
Degerfors IF xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.94
17%
Draw
8.19
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
8%
12.28
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
1%
100.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.96 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 44 games, going 24W 8D 12L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.55 PPG from 44 outings (19W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.82 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 13W 3D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.55 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 64%.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 24W 8D 12L in their last 44 games (1.82 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 19W 11D 14L in their last 44 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Degerfors IF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 2.10 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jul 2025, when AIK Stockholm won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 45%, Degerfors IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AIK Stockholm) and 50% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 60% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 50% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AIK Stockholm run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Degerfors IF 3-0 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 2.51 xG and Degerfors IF 0.96 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.22 / defence 0.71 against Degerfors IF attack 1.08 / defence 1.49, drawn from 45/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 71% | Draw 17% | Degerfors IF 12%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 48%, Degerfors IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.82 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.