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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Valladolid.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Valladolid 5-1 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.82 xG and Valladolid 0.92 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.36 / defence 1.11 against Valladolid attack 0.72 / defence 1.49, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 77% | Draw 14% | Valladolid 10%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 67%, Valladolid 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Valladolid's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. Valladolid (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights