Villarreal 5-1 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Valladolid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Villarreal host Valladolid at Estadio de la Cerámica in La Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Villarreal — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estadio de la Cerámica — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valladolid stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Valladolid have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Villarreal have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Villarreal, 1 for Valladolid and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Villarreal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Villarreal in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Valladolid in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 76% versus Valladolid 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 67% | Valladolid 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.82 xG and Valladolid 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.362 / defence 1.109 | Valladolid attack 0.717 / defence 1.487. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.160. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — their λ of 2.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.487 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Villarreal games / 21 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 77% | Draw 14% | Valladolid 10%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.30 | Draw 7.14 | Valladolid 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (77%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 80% | Valladolid 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 77% | Draw 14% | Valladolid 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 57% | xG Villarreal 2.82 / Valladolid 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.362 / def 1.109 | Valladolid attack 0.717 / def 1.487 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.82
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Valladolid xG
57%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Valladolid kick off?
Villarreal vs Valladolid kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Villarreal 5 - 1 Valladolid.
Where is Villarreal vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Valladolid part of?
Villarreal vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 77% chance of winning, Valladolid a 10% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Villarreal and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valladolid?
Record (3 meetings): Villarreal 2W | Draws 0 | Valladolid 1W.
What form are Villarreal and Valladolid in?
Villarreal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Valladolid (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Villarreal's attack rating (1.36) and Valladolid's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valladolid's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
77%
1.31
14%
7.18
10%
10.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.82
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.74
0.92
Valladolid xG
1.31
77%
Home win
7.18
14%
Draw
10.52
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
6%
16.74
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
1%
176.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 2.82 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.92 for Valladolid, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Villarreal have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 9W 7D 5L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valladolid's form line: 4W 3D 14L from 21 games, 0.71 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
Venue Form
On home soil, Villarreal have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L).
On the road, Valladolid have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valladolid's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 9W 7D 5L in their last 21 games (1.62 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 4W 3D 14L in their last 21 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Valladolid away?
Villarreal's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.60 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Villarreal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Villarreal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Villarreal's record when hosting Valladolid specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Villarreal
0
Draws
1
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 3, Valladolid have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Villarreal 5-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Valladolid?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Villarreal at 80%, Valladolid at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Villarreal and 80% for Valladolid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valladolid in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Valladolid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Villarreal's games and 50% of Valladolid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Villarreal's matches and 80% of Valladolid's.
Do Villarreal and Valladolid tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Valladolid 5-1 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.82 xG and Valladolid 0.92 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.36 / defence 1.11 against Valladolid attack 0.72 / defence 1.49, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 77% | Draw 14% | Valladolid 10%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 67%, Valladolid 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Valladolid's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. Valladolid (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.