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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Villarreal and Valencia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 24, as Villarreal and Valencia drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 3.01 xG and Valencia 1.01 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Villarreal fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.47 / defence 1.12 against Valencia attack 0.79 / defence 1.44, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 77% | Draw 13% | Valencia 10%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 67%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.

Valencia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.52 PPG, Valencia 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights