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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Villarreal and Real Sociedad share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 32, as Villarreal and Real Sociedad drew 2-2 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.74 xG and Real Sociedad 1.12 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Real Sociedad outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.17 / defence 0.96 against Real Sociedad attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 52% | Draw 24% | Real Sociedad 25%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 65%, Real Sociedad 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.53 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights