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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Osasuna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Osasuna 4-2 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.53 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.15 / defence 0.97 against Osasuna attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 51% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 23%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 65%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Osasuna's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.52 PPG, Osasuna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights