Villarreal 3-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Villarreal and Osasuna meet at Estadio de la Cerámica in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Villarreal (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal at Estadio de la Cerámica this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Osasuna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 3–0 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 59% versus Osasuna 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 55% | Osasuna 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.74 xG and Osasuna 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.052 / defence 1.358 | Osasuna attack 1.099 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.203. Data: 51 Villarreal games / 51 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 37% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 39%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Osasuna 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 90% | Osasuna 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 37% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Villarreal 1.74 / Osasuna 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.052 / def 1.358 | Osasuna attack 1.099 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Osasuna xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Osasuna kick off?
Villarreal vs Osasuna kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Villarreal 3 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Villarreal vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Osasuna part of?
Villarreal vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 37% chance of winning, Osasuna a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Villarreal and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Osasuna?
Record (4 meetings): Villarreal 2W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Villarreal and Osasuna in?
Villarreal (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Villarreal's attack rating (1.05) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (1.10x) against Villarreal's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
37%
2.71
24%
4.16
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.54
1.79
Osasuna xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
17%
6.02
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
6%
16.30
7%
14.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.79 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal come into this having played 51 games, going 22W 10D 19L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.31 PPG from 51 outings (19W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Villarreal against 1.31 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Villarreal's home form reads 12W 4D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.02 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 51 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 22W 10D 19L in their last 51 games (1.49 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 10D 22L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Osasuna away?
Villarreal's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.60 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 0-3 on 19 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Osasuna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Osasuna?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 72%, Osasuna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Villarreal) and 36% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Osasuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Villarreal's games and 44% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Villarreal's recent games and 36% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Osasuna tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Osasuna 3-1 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.74 xG and Osasuna 1.79 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.05 / defence 1.36 against Osasuna attack 1.10 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 37% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 39%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Villarreal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 55%, Osasuna 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.49 PPG, Osasuna 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.