Atletico Madrid 1-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano plays host to Atletico Madrid versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico Madrid have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Madrid at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — Atletico Madrid are significantly better at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Atletico Madrid's 2.40 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Atletico Madrid, 3 for Mallorca and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with Atletico Madrid winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atletico Madrid — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Mallorca — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 54% versus Mallorca 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 56% | Mallorca 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 2.52 xG and Mallorca 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.401 / defence 0.972 | Mallorca attack 0.928 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.213. Atletico Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.401 — their λ of 2.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Atletico Madrid games / 50 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 67% | Draw 19% | Mallorca 14%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Mallorca 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.52 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Mallorca lead the H2H ledger, but Atletico Madrid carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Madrid 90% | Mallorca 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 67% | Draw 19% | Mallorca 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 62% | xG Atletico Madrid 2.52 / Mallorca 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.401 / def 0.972 | Mallorca attack 0.928 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Mallorca xG
62%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Atletico Madrid 1 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 67% chance of winning, Mallorca a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Mallorca?
Record (4 meetings): Atletico Madrid 1W | Draws 0 | Mallorca 3W.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Mallorca in?
Atletico Madrid (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Mallorca (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atletico Madrid's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.52. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.93x) against Atletico Madrid's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.6%), 1-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
67%
1.48
19%
5.29
14%
7.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
3.61
1.09
Mallorca xG
1.48
67%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
7.32
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
8%
12.42
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
1%
90.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.09 for Mallorca, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atletico Madrid's recent record stands at 32W 9D 9L from 50 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 21L across 50 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Madrid by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atletico Madrid have managed 19W 3D 3L from 25 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 5W 4D 16L across 25 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.98 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 50 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Madrid and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 32W 9D 9L in their last 50 games (2.10 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 15W 14D 21L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Mallorca away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.40 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Mallorca in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won 3-0 on 25 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Madrid have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atletico Madrid
1
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Atletico Madrid have won 6, Mallorca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Atletico Madrid 3-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Mallorca?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 68%, Mallorca 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Atletico Madrid) and 44% (Mallorca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Madrid play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Atletico Madrid's games and 44% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Atletico Madrid's matches and 44% of Mallorca's.
Do Atletico Madrid and Mallorca tend to score early?
Atletico Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Mallorca 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Mallorca 1-0 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.52 xG and Mallorca 1.09 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Madrid fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Mallorca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.40 / defence 0.97 against Mallorca attack 0.93 / defence 1.18, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 67% | Draw 19% | Mallorca 14%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 56%, Mallorca 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mallorca's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.