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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Levante.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Levante 5-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.02 xG and Levante 0.76 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against Levante attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 67% | Draw 20% | Levante 13%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 58%, Levante 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Levante's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm. Levante (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights