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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Leganes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Leganes 3-0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.02 xG and Leganes 1.03 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Leganes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.26 / defence 1.05 against Leganes attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 60% | Draw 21% | Leganes 19%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 63%, Leganes 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Leganes's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Leganes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights