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Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Girona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Girona 5-0 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.80 xG and Girona 1.04 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Girona landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.25 / defence 0.90 against Girona attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 55% | Draw 23% | Girona 22%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 64%, Girona 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Girona's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights