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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Elche 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Elche 2-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.57 xG and Elche 0.92 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.26 / defence 0.94 against Elche attack 0.86 / defence 1.36, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 73% | Draw 16% | Elche 11%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 58%, Elche 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Elche's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights