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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Atletico Madrid.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Atletico Madrid 5-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.02 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.42 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.40 / defence 1.11 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.14 / defence 0.95, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 52% | Draw 22% | Atletico Madrid 27%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 61%, Atletico Madrid 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.85 PPG, Atletico Madrid 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights