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Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Alaves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Alaves 3-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.81 xG and Alaves 0.68 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.20 / defence 0.87 against Alaves attack 0.69 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 63% | Draw 25% | Alaves 12%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 62%, Alaves 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm. Alaves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights