Valladolid vs Valencia – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Valladolid defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valladolid beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.11 xG and Valencia 1.31 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.65 / defence 1.41 against Valencia attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 16/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valladolid 32% | Draw 27% | Valencia 41%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Valladolid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 62%, Valencia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valladolid's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Valencia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valladolid 0.56 PPG, Valencia 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valladolid win broke the near-deadlock. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights