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Dominant Sevilla run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Valladolid.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sevilla beat Valladolid 0-4 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.01 xG and Sevilla 1.58 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Valladolid fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sevilla outscored their 1.58 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.64 / defence 1.26 against Sevilla attack 1.09 / defence 1.12, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valladolid 24% | Draw 26% | Sevilla 50%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 61%, Sevilla 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valladolid's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sevilla's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.65. That form edge translated into the three points. Valladolid (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights