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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Valladolid.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Valladolid 0-3 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.85 xG and Real Madrid 1.91 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Valladolid fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Real Madrid outscored their 1.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.70 / defence 1.17 against Real Madrid attack 1.43 / defence 0.87, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valladolid 16% | Draw 22% | Real Madrid 62%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 60%, Real Madrid 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valladolid's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Real Madrid's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Valladolid (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights