Valladolid vs Las Palmas – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Valladolid and Las Palmas share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 26, as Valladolid and Las Palmas drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.01 xG and Las Palmas 1.62 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.57 / defence 1.43 against Las Palmas attack 0.98 / defence 1.23, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valladolid 24% | Draw 25% | Las Palmas 52%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 64%, Las Palmas 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valladolid's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Las Palmas's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valladolid 0.60 PPG, Las Palmas 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Las Palmas (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights