Valladolid 0-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valladolid vs Girona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Girona travel to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla to take on Valladolid. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 13 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valladolid stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Valladolid at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Valladolid are significantly better at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Girona have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Girona's 0.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Valladolid's 0.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Valladolid, 2 for Girona and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Girona winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Valladolid in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Girona in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 54% versus Girona 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 69% | Girona 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.03 xG and Girona 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.653 / defence 1.506 | Girona attack 0.833 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.190. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Valladolid games / 73 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 26% | Draw 26% | Girona 48%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Girona 2.08. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Valladolid 30% | Girona 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 26% | Draw 26% | Girona 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Valladolid 1.03 / Girona 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.653 / def 1.506 | Girona attack 0.833 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Girona (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Girona xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Girona kick off?
Valladolid vs Girona kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Girona?
Valladolid 0 - 1 Girona.
Where is Valladolid vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Girona part of?
Valladolid vs Girona is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 26% chance of winning, Girona a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Valladolid and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Girona?
Record (3 meetings): Valladolid 1W | Draws 0 | Girona 2W.
What form are Valladolid and Girona in?
Valladolid (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Girona (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.65) and Girona's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
26%
3.81
26%
3.85
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.53
1.49
Girona xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
6%
16.92
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.49 for Girona, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valladolid's recent record stands at 4W 4D 27L from 35 games, a 0.46 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 17L across 35 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valladolid heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valladolid have managed 3W 4D 10L from 17 games — 0.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Girona's away record stands at 3W 5D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Valladolid are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.17 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 35 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Girona in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 4W 4D 27L in their last 35 games (0.46 PPG), while Girona have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 0.76 PPG; Girona away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Girona have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valladolid's record when hosting Girona specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Valladolid
0
Draws
3
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Girona?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 1, Girona have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Valladolid 0-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 41%, Girona 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Valladolid) and 41% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Valladolid have failed to score in 41% of games; Girona in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Girona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Valladolid's recent matches and 53% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Valladolid's recent games and 41% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Girona tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Girona in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Valladolid 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Valladolid 0-1 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.03 xG and Girona 1.49 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valladolid fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.65 / defence 1.51 against Girona attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 26% | Draw 26% | Girona 48%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 69%, Girona 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Girona's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.