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Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Valladolid 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Valladolid 0-1 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.01 xG and Celta Vigo 1.58 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valladolid fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.59 / defence 1.40 against Celta Vigo attack 1.00 / defence 1.19, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valladolid 24% | Draw 25% | Celta Vigo 50%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 63%, Celta Vigo 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valladolid's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Celta Vigo arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights