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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Barcelona edge out Valladolid 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barcelona beat Valladolid 1-2 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.75 xG and Barcelona 2.87 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Barcelona landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.64 / defence 1.58 against Barcelona attack 1.52 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valladolid 7% | Draw 12% | Barcelona 81%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 67%, Barcelona 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valladolid's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Barcelona's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.48. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights