Valencia 1-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valencia vs Villarreal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Villarreal at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Valencia — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Valencia's home record at Estadio de Mestalla: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Villarreal have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Villarreal — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Valencia have won 1, Villarreal 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2022, ended 1–2 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Valencia in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 56% versus Villarreal 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 49% | Villarreal 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.24 xG and Villarreal 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.864 / defence 1.062 | Villarreal attack 1.257 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.059. Villarreal have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Valencia games / 70 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 33% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 41%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Villarreal 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Valencia 40% | Villarreal 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 33% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Valencia 1.24 / Villarreal 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.864 / def 1.062 | Villarreal attack 1.257 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Villarreal xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Villarreal kick off?
Valencia vs Villarreal kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Valencia 1 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Valencia vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Villarreal part of?
Valencia vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 33% chance of winning, Villarreal a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Valencia and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Villarreal?
Record (3 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 2W.
What form are Valencia and Villarreal in?
Valencia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Villarreal (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.86) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
33%
3.03
26%
3.85
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.65
1.41
Villarreal xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Valencia and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Valencia and 1.41 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 20W 21D 29L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Villarreal's form line: 32W 16D 22L from 70 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valencia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.43 PPG from 35 outings (13W 11D 11L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 12W 8D 15L from 35 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Valencia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.56 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Current Season
Villarreal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 20W 21D 29L in their last 70 games (1.16 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 32W 16D 22L in their last 70 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Villarreal away?
Valencia's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.43 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Valencia or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Villarreal in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valencia and Villarreal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Villarreal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Valencia's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valencia
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Villarreal 2-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valencia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 54%, Villarreal 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Valencia) and 40% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Villarreal in 34%; Villarreal in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Valencia's recent matches and 37% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Valencia's recent games and 40% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Valencia and Villarreal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 33, as Valencia and Villarreal drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.24 xG and Villarreal 1.41 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Villarreal attack 1.26 / defence 1.01, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 33% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 41%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 49%, Villarreal 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.