Almeria 2-1 Elche – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Almeria at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almeria vs Elche fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Elche make the trip to Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos to face Almeria in La Liga, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 May 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Almeria (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almeria have posted 4W 2D 4L at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Elche's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Elche away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Almeria, 0.70 for Elche — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Almeria 0W, Elche 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Almeria — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Elche — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 69% versus Elche 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 59% | Elche 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.60 xG and Elche 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.952 / defence 1.221 | Elche attack 0.654 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.069. Data: 32 Almeria games / 70 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 55% | Draw 25% | Elche 20%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Elche 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Almeria (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almeria are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 60% | Elche 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 May 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 55% | Draw 25% | Elche 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Almeria 1.60 / Elche 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.952 / def 1.221 | Elche attack 0.654 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Almeria (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Elche xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Elche kick off?
Almeria vs Elche kicked off at 18:30 on Tuesday 2 May 2023 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Elche?
Almeria 2 - 1 Elche.
Where is Almeria vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Elche part of?
Almeria vs Elche is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 55% chance of winning, Elche a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Almeria and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Elche?
Record (1 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 1 | Elche 0W.
What form are Almeria and Elche in?
Almeria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Elche (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Almeria's attack rating (0.95) and Elche's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Elche's attack (0.65x) against Almeria's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
55%
1.82
25%
4.00
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.46
0.85
Elche xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
24.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Almeria and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Almeria and 0.85 for Elche, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Elche?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Almeria have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 6D 17L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Elche's form line: 3W 7D 22L from 32 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Almeria are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Elche.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Almeria have posted 1.62 PPG from 16 outings (8W 2D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Elche have gone 1W 3D 12L from 16 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almeria are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 0.75 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Current Season
Elche
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Elche in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 9W 6D 17L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while Elche have gone 3W 7D 22L in their last 32 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Elche away?
Almeria's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.62 PPG; Elche away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Almeria
1
Draws
0
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Elche?
From 2 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Elche have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2023, when Almeria 2-1 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Elche?
Almeria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 69%, Elche 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Almeria) and 62% (Elche). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Elche in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Elche?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Almeria's recent matches and 38% of Elche's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almeria vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Almeria's matches and 62% of Elche's.
Do Almeria and Elche tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Elche in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almeria edge out Elche 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Elche 2-1 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.60 xG and Elche 0.85 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.95 / defence 1.22 against Elche attack 0.65 / defence 1.20, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 55% | Draw 25% | Elche 20%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 59%, Elche 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Elche's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Almeria arrived the stronger side — 1.03 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.