🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Valladolid 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia beat Valladolid 2-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 2.53 xG and Valladolid 0.91 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.97 / defence 1.12 against Valladolid attack 0.72 / defence 1.79, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 73% | Draw 16% | Valladolid 11%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 50%, Valladolid 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Valladolid's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valencia 0.92 PPG, Valladolid 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights