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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Valencia and Real Sociedad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia and Real Sociedad finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.52 xG and Real Sociedad 1.02 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Real Sociedad attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 49% | Draw 26% | Real Sociedad 25%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 45%, Real Sociedad 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valencia 1.21 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights