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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Madrid cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Valencia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Valencia 0-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.05 xG and Real Madrid 1.53 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Valencia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Real Madrid attack 1.34 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 25% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 47%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 45%, Real Madrid 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Real Madrid's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Madrid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights