🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Valencia 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Valencia 1-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.28 xG and Real Madrid 1.89 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.05 / defence 1.12 against Real Madrid attack 1.42 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 26% | Draw 22% | Real Madrid 52%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 44%, Real Madrid 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Real Madrid's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Valencia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights