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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Valencia and Rayo Vallecano share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia and Rayo Vallecano finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.37 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.13 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.83 / defence 0.97, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 42% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 31%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 42%, Rayo Vallecano 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valencia 1.21 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights