🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Valencia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Leganes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia beat Leganes 2-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.36 xG and Leganes 1.00 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Leganes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Leganes attack 0.84 / defence 0.92, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 45% | Draw 27% | Leganes 27%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 50%, Leganes 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Leganes's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valencia 0.86 PPG, Leganes 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Leganes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights