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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Girona 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia beat Girona 2-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.32 xG and Girona 1.22 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.98 / defence 1.18 against Girona attack 0.93 / defence 0.88, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 39% | Draw 27% | Girona 34%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 43%, Girona 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Girona's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valencia 1.17 PPG, Girona 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights