🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Atletico Madrid cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Valencia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Valencia 0-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.70 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.33 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Valencia fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.02 / defence 1.15 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 46% | Draw 24% | Atletico Madrid 30%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Atletico Madrid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 44%, Atletico Madrid 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights