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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Atletico Madrid run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Valencia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Valencia 0-3 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.07 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.18 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Valencia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Atletico Madrid outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.05 / defence 0.71, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 33% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 38%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 44%, Atletico Madrid 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights