Valencia vs Alaves – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Mestalla to face Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Valencia (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Alaves have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Valencia, 0.90 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valencia lead 3W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Valencia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Valencia — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Alaves — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 51% versus Alaves 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 43% | Alaves 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.33 xG and Alaves 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.695 / defence 1.138 | Alaves attack 0.858 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.245. Valencia's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Valencia games / 49 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 38% | Draw 29% | Alaves 33%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Alaves 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 50% | Alaves 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 38% | Draw 29% | Alaves 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Valencia 1.33 / Alaves 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.695 / def 1.138 | Alaves attack 0.858 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Valencia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Alaves xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Alaves kick off?
Valencia vs Alaves is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Estadio de Mestalla.
Where is Valencia vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Alaves part of?
Valencia vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 38% chance of winning, Alaves a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Valencia and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Alaves?
Record (9 meetings): Valencia 3W | Draws 2 | Alaves 4W.
What form are Valencia and Alaves in?
Valencia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Alaves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valencia's attack at 0.69x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.86x) against Valencia's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.41
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.54
1.22
Alaves xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Valencia and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Valencia and 1.22 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valencia come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 13D 21L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.08 PPG from 49 outings (13W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Valencia against 1.08 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valencia's home form reads 8W 8D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (4W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.16 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves in 61%.
Last 49 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Alaves in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Alaves have gone 13W 14D 22L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Alaves away?
Valencia's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.28 PPG; Alaves away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Valencia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Valencia
2
Draws
4
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Alaves?
From 9 meetings on record, Valencia have won 3, Alaves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2026, when Alaves 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Alaves?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 56%, Alaves 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Valencia) and 44% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Valencia have failed to score in 28% of games; Alaves in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Alaves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Valencia's games and 56% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valencia vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Valencia's recent games and 44% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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