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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Alaves 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia beat Alaves 3-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.31 xG and Alaves 0.79 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Valencia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Alaves attack 0.73 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 49% | Draw 29% | Alaves 22%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 44%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valencia 1.17 PPG, Alaves 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights