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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sevilla and Valencia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sevilla and Valencia finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.27 xG and Valencia 0.76 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.81 / defence 0.89 against Valencia attack 0.73 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 48% | Draw 29% | Valencia 22%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 46%, Valencia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Valencia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.12 PPG, Valencia 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights