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Mallorca cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sevilla.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Sevilla 1-3 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.79 xG and Mallorca 1.20 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Mallorca attack 0.90 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 51% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 25%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 46%, Mallorca 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Mallorca's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.17 PPG, Mallorca 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights