🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Sevilla (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sevilla face Mallorca.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán plays host to Sevilla versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 18 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Mallorca (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mallorca away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Sevilla's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Sevilla 3W, Mallorca 1W, 4D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Sevilla half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).

Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 59% versus Mallorca 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 46% | Mallorca 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.79 xG and Mallorca 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.108 / defence 1.157 | Mallorca attack 0.902 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.149. Data: 46 Sevilla games / 46 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sevilla 51% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 25%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Mallorca 4.00. Sevilla hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 70% | Mallorca 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights