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Dominant Levante run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sevilla.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levante beat Sevilla 0-3 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.71 xG and Levante 1.03 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sevilla fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Levante outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.11 / defence 1.10 against Levante attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 52% | Draw 26% | Levante 22%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Levante win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 62%, Levante 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Levante's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Levante winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights