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Shock result as Sevilla defy the odds to beat Las Palmas 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sevilla beat Las Palmas 1-0 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.24 xG and Las Palmas 1.30 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Las Palmas attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 35% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 38%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sevilla win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 45%, Las Palmas 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Las Palmas's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.08 PPG, Las Palmas 0.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights