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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sevilla and Espanyol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 21, as Sevilla and Espanyol drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.50 xG and Espanyol 0.67 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Espanyol attack 0.63 / defence 1.33, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 57% | Draw 26% | Espanyol 17%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 40%, Espanyol 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Espanyol's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.30 PPG, Espanyol 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Espanyol (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights